SHPGX导读：伍德麦肯兹最近发布报告称，油气行业目前正处于上升周期的第三年，今年的新生产投资为4900亿美元。这将大大高于2020年的低点3700亿美元。
石油行业生产投资支出仍不足以满足供应需求
2023年新生产投资总额为4900亿美元
尽管需求可能见顶，但分析师担心缺乏备用产能缓冲
据油价网8月26日报道，多年来一直有人警告称，石油行业在新勘探领域的投资不足，但现在该行业已开始加大投资。然而，这仍不足以确保足够的供应来应对需求。
至少这是伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mac）分析师的看法，他们最近报告称，油气行业目前正处于上升周期的第三年，今年的新生产投资为4900亿美元。这将大大高于2020年的低点3700亿美元。
伍德麦肯兹的分析师在接受采访时指出，尽管单靠自己的支出不足以确保供应，但成本削减将弥补这一差额。他们注意到美国页岩油和其他非欧佩克产油国的崛起，并预测未来几年非欧佩克产油国将保持稳定的市场份额。
事实上，这与美国石油行业高管在最新财报季的报告不谋而合。基本上，他们所说的是油井产出的石油比预期的要多，从而提高了总产量。油井产量增加的原因在于技术的进步。
本月早些时候，先锋自然资源公司的报告称，自今年年初以来，油井生产率一直明显高于2022年的平均水平。然而，与此同时，彭博社最近援引Enverus的研究表明，页岩井的开采速度比之前假设的要快，随着页岩田的成熟，几乎没有未开发的储层。
除了美国的石油，还有加拿大、墨西哥、巴西和圭亚那等较小的生产国。这些都对全球供应作出了重大贡献，但欧佩克仍占油池中最大份额，因为其共同的供应控制政策。
更重要的是，“随着BRICS集团的扩大，我们得到了另一个由全球最大生产国组成的集团，部分与欧佩克重叠，但也包括巴西和阿根廷”。
抛开集团不谈，尽管有转型的推动，但全球对新油气供应的投资确实在增加。高盛(Goldman Sachs)上月报告称，目前全球有70个大型油气项目正在开发中。这比2020年增长了25%，尽管2020年很难被视为除IT行业以外任何行业投资决策的正常年份。
据这家投资银行称，长达7年的投资不足会导致未来项目的资源寿命以及已投产油田的寿命急剧下降。随着投资的反弹，这种情况可能会改变。另一方面，Wood Mac警告称，需求将见顶，并将推动油气行业发生根本性变化。
据上游分析师Fraser McKay和Ian Thom称，本轮周期不会像之前的周期那样以泡沫破裂告终。原因是：向非烃能源过渡所造成的石油需求峰值的前景。他们认为，这一前景将使油气生产商保持警觉，并在较长期内严格遵守其财务纪律。
然而，尽管需求可能见顶，但就连Wood Mac的分析师也担心缺乏备用产能缓冲，即在适应转型世界的同时，注重支出和效率。
McKay和Thom表示，“我们认为企业追求的是利润率，而不是市场份额；上游供应链产能将缓慢增长，而不是飞跃增长，这是上升周期中的传统反应。这种限制可能会导致供应链比该行业适应的更紧张”。
虽然很多预测者都在谈论甚至公开呼吁石油需求见顶，但就目前而言，石油需求触顶仍近在眼前，而石油的实际需求却屡创新高。就连能源转型的倡导者也是石油需求见顶预测者的国际能源署(IEA)也表示，短期内需求将会增长，今年将达到历史最高水平的1.02亿桶/日。
这使得全球供需平衡可能比Wood Mac的分析所预测的更加不稳定。虽然技术进步确实在保持高产量和降低成本方面发挥了重要作用，但美国页岩油开采商已经摆脱了之前“不惜一切代价增长”的设定。
与此同时，欧佩克对个别成员国——沙特阿拉伯——的产量进行了限制，只要他们决定，就可以削减额外产量，以推高油价。
尽管有转型的推动，石油和天然气行业仍在加大对新产量的投入。这意味着预期石油需求峰值是一个相对遥远的前景。如果在成本大幅上涨和原材料短缺的风险下，转型开始显示出乏力的迹象，那么需求峰值甚至可能变得更加遥远。
郝芬 译自 油价网
原文如下:
Oil Industry Not Spending Enough To Balance Supply & Demand
*Wood Mackenzie: the oil industry still isn't spending enough for supply to meet demand.
*WoodMac: investments in new production total $490 billion in 2023.
*Despite the prospect of peak demand,Wood Mac analysts are worried about the lack of a spare production capacity cushion.
After years of warnings of failure to invest in enough new exploration, the industry has begun spending more. Yet, it would still be less than is necessary to secure enough supply to respond to demand.
That’s the take of Wood Mackenzie analysts, at least, who recently reported that the oil and gas industry is currently in the third year of an upcycle, with this year’s investments in new production at $490 billion. This would be significantly higher than the low reached in 2020, which stood at $370 billion.
Even though spending on its own is not enough to secure supply, the Wood Mac analysts noted in an interview for the firm that cost reductions will make up for the difference. They note the rise of U.S. shale and other non-OPEC sources, and forecast non-OPEC producers to maintain a constant market share in the coming years.
Indeed, this chimes in with what U.S. oil industry executives reported during the latest financial reporting season. What the said, basically, was that wells were yielding more oil than expected, boosting total production. The reason wells were yielding more: technological improvements.
Argus reported earlier this month, citing Pioneer Natural Resources, that well productivity since the start of the year has been trending significantly higher than the average for 2022. At the same time, however, Bloomberg recently cited research from Enverus suggesting that shale wells were draining faster than previously assumed, with few untapped reservoirs left as the shale patch gets mature.
Besides U.S. oil, there is also Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and smaller producers such as Guyana. These have contributed significantly to global supply, but OPEC remains the biggest fish in the oil pond because of its common supply control policies.
What’s more, with the expansion of the BRICS bloc, we get another grouping of some of the largest producers in the world, partly overlapping with OPEC but also including Brazil and Argentina.
Groupings aside, global investments in new oil and gas supplied are well and truly on a rise despite the transition push. Goldman Sachs reported last month that there were currently 70 large-scale oil and gas projects under development globally right now. That was up by a substantial 25% from 2020, although 2020 could hardly be seen as a normal year for investment decision-making in any industry except perhaps IT.
Per the investment bank, the seven-year-long underinvestment period led to a sharp decline in the resource life of future projects as well as the life of already producing fields. With a rebound in investment, this may yet change. Wood Mac, on the other hand, warns of peak demand and a fundamental change in the oil and gas industry driven by the prospect of that.
According to upstream analysts Fraser McKay and Ian Thom, the current cycle will not end with a bust as all previous cycles in the industry did. The reason: the prospect of peak oil demand caused by the transition to non-hydrocarbon energy sources. This prospect, they argued, would keep oil and gas producers on their toes and maintain their financial discipline over the longer term.
Still, despite the prospect of peak demand, even Wood Mac analysts are worried about the lack of a spare production capacity cushion, which could be viewed as a side effect of this newly found discipline with spending and focus on efficiency while adjusting to a world in transition.
“We expect companies to go for margin rather than market share; and upstream supply chain capacity to creep rather than leap, which has been the traditional response in an upcycle,” McKay and Thom said, adding “That restraint could lead to a tighter supply chain than the industry has been used to.”
While peak demand for oil is something that a lot of forecasters talk about and even call for openly, for now it remains on the horizon while actual demand for oil breaks record after record. Even the International Energy Agency, a vocal transition advocate and peak oil demand forecaster said that over the short-term demand is going to grow, hitting a record of over 102 million barrels daily this year.
This makes the global balance between supply and demand perhaps a bit more precarious than the Wood Mac analysis suggests. While it’s true that technological gains have played an important role in keeping production high while reducing costs, U.S. shale drillers have steered clear of their previous setting of “growth at all costs”.
Meanwhile, OPEC is keeping a lid on output with the novel option for individual members—Saudi Arabia—to cut additional volumes whenever they decide to, in order to push prices higher.
The oil and gas industry is spending more on new production despite the transition push. This means expectations are that peak oil demand is a relatively distant prospect. It might even become more distant if the transition begins to show signs of exhaustion amid substantial cost inflation and the risks of raw material shortages.
本文来源 | 中国石化新闻网
翻译 | 郝芬
